A recent article at The Economist explores a pathway for Europe to significantly enhance the ability of Ukraine to outlast Russia in a way it claims is highly likely to gradually shift the balance of strategic advantage in Ukraine's favour. The newspaper article states (paywalled):
"Ukraine needs to be supplied with enough money and materiel to defend itself, keep its economy afloat and impose a punishing cost on Russia. Ukraine’s backers also need to signal credibly that they will support the country for as long as it takes to make it clear to Vladimir Putin that he cannot win a long war."
The article explores a range of interesting financial costs, budgets and hard military capabilities and relates these matters to national advantage. Financial capacity is one element that contributes to national power (see also this) by allowing a country to not only fund larger and / or more modern military forces but also provides the capability to endure. An ability to outlast an adversary is a key consideration when military capabilities otherwise generally counter each other well. Being able to outlast an adversary can often be a path to victory; even if not a total military victory, but a negotiated victory.
Another recent The Economist article highlights the opportunity:
"But Mr Putin’s initial war boom has now given way to stagflation, with growth at almost zero, labour shortages, hidden bad debts, inflation of 8% and interest rates of 16.5%. Another half-decade of this would probably trigger an economic and banking crisis in Russia. If Europe can demonstrate to Russia that it will underwrite the war for at least that long, Mr Putin will be cornered."
And goes on to lay out the way forward:
"A four-year commitment would cost $390bn, composed almost entirely of donated weapons and cash to finance Ukraine’s budget deficits. This is a lot, but still excellent value. Spread across the economic resources of all NATO members (not counting America), the bill for Ukraine is affordable, with annual costs rising from 0.2% of GDP last year to 0.4% of GDP."
Capability is one element of threat. While Europe could do as The Economist has identified, what is it's intent - that other critical element?
The articles offer tantalising options however it is important to note that while financial capacity is important, particularly when an adversary's financial capacity is comparitively disadvantaged, it is no panacea. Walking and chewing gum at the same time will remain important for Ukraine, and Europe. Additional elements of national power and capability has been explored and considered for some time, and the important and interesting Correlates of War project, and associated datasets, is recommended and will likely feature on this blog in the future.